The 2010 En Premier prices have been starting to release from the end of April and the market was as hot as it can be. All the hot items were sold out within an hour or two; merchants have been trying to wire-in their connections just to get hold of any extra cases possible (11/April - Liv-ex 100 = 359; Liv-ex 50 = 439). After almost two months of incubation with a final kick of Vinexpo 2011 in Bordeaux, the first growths and the top notches finally released their rocket high prices. Ch. Lafite-Rothschild with their first trench at €600 but only a hand full of people can enjoy the price along with tones of Ch. Rieussac (not to despite that it is a very good Sauternes). Most of the merchants would be happy to spend €1,080 for a bottle of Ch. Lafite-Rothschild, €600 for Ch. Margaux or Ch. Mouton-Rothschild and €780 for Ch. Latour; and that’s of course, if you have the allocations.
Not far from their releases, statistics indicated that some of the top 2010 Bordeaux prices have slide 15% by the end of July 19th. A case of 12 bottle Lafite would have cost almost €14,000 at year higest and is now costing €12,700 (3rd Oct; beware of Liv-ex 2.5% transaction fee); some French necogiants are now even offering less than €900 a bottle in package term. Other most sort after Chateaus such as Ch. Lynch-Bages and Ch. Pontet Canet have dropped 11.5% and 17% respectively (11/June - Liv-ex 100: 364.69; Liv-ex 50: 445.40)
At the same time, the physical assets side of the Fine wine investment isn’t doing that well also. Claret Chip, the toppest rated Bordeaux first growths only, dropped over 13% from year highest; Live-ex 50 and 100 down approximately 10% from year highest. It was argued that because Lafite is being heavily weighted and its drop would greatly traumatize these indices; but no one seems to care the issue when these indices were shooting through the roof. The worst was that Emperor Parker downgraded 2008 Bordeaux vintage by 1.18 on average (Most Impacted: Chateau Margaux down from 95-97 to 94, Latour from 96-98 to 95+, Petrus from 98-100 to 97, Le Pin from 94-96 to 92 and Leoville-Las Cases from 95-97+ to 93+) and noticed that the 2008 vintages have just been added to the major indices recently. Of course, the people who bought the 08 from En Premier would not worry about the current price fluctuation due to their bravery in 2009. For an example (and also the most extreme one), they have bought Lafite at €4,000 per case of 12 bottles (at 2009) when even the 2011 year lowest was trading at around €10,000 a case, why would anyone of them worry? (Chateau Mouton-Rothschild showed similar price trend with an average of 26% lost since the beginning of the year 2011). Further, the 98 vintage declined by approximately 10%, 2004 in significant amount, 2003 and 2005 by around 8% each; not to mentioned, the Christie’s Poor performance in HK auction where Lafite took an average of 13~15% punch.
Needless to say, Ch. Lafite-Rothschild is overly heat in the recent decade and is now the time to be rationally adjusted by the market. I do believe (in investment term)that it is still either the King or Queen of all wines; but in the short term, the bubble created by the Chinese needs to be busted, Carruades de Lafite also. As for the Lafite fans, the 2003 vintage or a under €10,000 case 2008 would probably be the best shield to doge the bullet. For the first growth in general, the 2003 would probably be the best selection "relative" to the other most recent decade vintages. 2006 is also a good option but the general WA score is at 95.6, which will have its own difficulties to price adjustment in the future; however, the market will do its own justice.
(original sources from Liv-ex.com - for personal use only)
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